Wednesday, October 28, 2015

“The state simply can not cope with so many military expeditions” – Kommersant

CIS borders must be strengthened because of the threat of the banned in Russia “Islamic state.” This was stated by head of the Russian Federal Security Service Alexander Bortnikov. According to him, the militants of the terrorist group intended to destabilize the situation in the countries of the Commonwealth. First of all, concern is the situation in Afghanistan. FSB is feared that terrorists could invade Central Asia, said Bortnikov. Political scientist Paul Svyatenkov answered the questions of the presenter “Kommersant FM» Maxim Mitchenkova.

– Should we really fear that Central Asia can invade terrorists as do you think about these statements of Mr. Bortnikov?

– I think that he made this statement before the heads of the special services of the CIS. And the idea is to strengthen the coordination between the intelligence agencies of different countries and try to really confront Islamic extremism in Central Asia. The fact that the situation in Central Asia could escalate, there may occur certain upheavals that could overthrow the secular regimes in general, experts say a long time. And if we recall the early 1990s of the last century, after the collapse of the Soviet Union in some countries there were serious conflicts on this basis, for example, is actually a civil war in Tajikistan. So naturally, these times may return. Given the unstable situation in the Middle East, apparently Bortnikov calls for increased vigilance and strengthen the border in order to counter the possible spread of such terrorism.

– That is it really real threat?

– I think this is a real threat. Especially considering the fact that recently passed the arrests of Islamic extremists, even in Moscow, I think, on the one hand, it is an attempt to strengthen the positions of Russia and its allies in Central Asia, on the other hand, maybe this is partly the application and in the direction of our so-called Western partners. That is an attempt to yet another angle of view to explain our expedition to Syria, trying to explain that by acting against the “Islamic state”, we thus defend our allies in Central Asia, in reality itself.

– And what such treatment can lead? Could be some more coalition against “Islamic state” in general as react CIS countries to this statement?

– In general, for They, at least, for the Central Asian states of the CIS, there is a direct reason to heed the words Bortnikov and really strengthen cooperation simply because the threat exists, however, irrespective of the IG because the threat can come from Afghanistan, for example, in the case of serious destabilization situation.

– But he says that it is there and will come out of Afghanistan is, because there on the northern borders have accumulated militants.

– Yes, and so are likely to Central Asian countries of the CIS will be used for some form of cooperation, because it is nothing else, and does not remain. Americans are unlikely to help them, the Chinese are also unlikely to be directly climb to the region today, it means that Russia remains as a force capable of at least deter the militants. Clearly, if the Central Asian regimes want to survive, they have in this regard to cooperate with Moscow.

– And can this statement be regarded as a statement of a certain success in Syria and call to what is necessary to combat terrorism, for example, in Afghanistan, whether there will be Russian troops are now?

– First, any success in Syria yet, are quite complex negotiations over Syria, and the West is not inferior to Russia, is still demanding the resignation of Assad. That is some success in Syria is not, and in this case, I see that there is an attempt to explain the Russian position on Syria. And expeditions in Afghanistan, to be honest, is from the perspective of public opinion look very bad, and it is unlikely Russia can throw on as many fronts. Do not end the crisis over the Donetsk and Lugansk, large and tension is maintained, we got into Syria, even if we have now got to Afghanistan, it seems to me that the state simply can not cope with so many military expeditions to such different directions.


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