Tuesday, February 16, 2016

“Production and so on high”: what the experts think about the agreements with OPEC – RBC

Photo: AP

Representatives of Russia, Qatar, Venezuela and Saudi Arabia announced the freezing of oil production at the level of 11 January 2016. Experts point out that this is hardly a “solution” and that production in the January beating records

The analyst Alexander Nazarov Gazprombank

«We and the Saudis are close to historical production highs. Moreover, according to the central control Energy management in January we had the historical record – more than 10.8 million barrels per day. That is, we are ready to install the ceiling – production is already at the maximum. At current prices of oil production in Russia will decline organically by the end of the year, Saudi Arabia, too, there is no possibility of its increase, because they have spare capacity are at the limit. Now it is critical to see the reaction of other producers who did not participate in this meeting, but the participation that called – is Iran and Iraq. That they planned to increase production this year. After the meeting, Ministers, oil prices fell back slightly, but long-term trends while others. I believe that we are near the lows for oil prices but quotations recovery will not be rapid, it can begin only at the end of this year ».

The analyst Sberbank CIB Valery Nesterov

«for speculators is important news that will promote the growth of oil prices for some time yet undetermined. Despite the skeptical forecasts, contacts between oil producers resulted in a series of consultations and even a certain understanding, if still vague. But while this arrangement looks like a call from the respected and let the major manufacturers, but still it is not a solution to those who are actually now can greatly increase production: Iran, Iraq, Libya, as well as manufacturers in the US oil
 In addition, there is a story not very productive cooperation between OPEC and Russia in the past, as well as an extensive history of non-compliance with the agreements on the various constraints on production (quotas) and technical difficulties to monitor the implementation of these agreements in the most OPEC. Therefore, today’s decision is welcome, but it has short-term effects on the market and too early to say that the process of recovery in the level of price $ 50-60 per barrel ».

Senior UBS analyst Maxim Moshkov

«no decision on freezing yet, there is only an intention. In current market conditions it is unlikely to take a decision. The meeting was unexpected, so in anticipation of the price of real solutions grew, but since they are usually, in fact, it was not, the price dropped again. If there is a decision to reduce production, it will be very effective for the market in general, and oil for the budget. But in fact today held a regular consultation without cost to the manufacturers. In the second half of the year we are waiting for a new production growth in Russia. For all projects, which are in this year, we are waiting for the increase of the order of 180 th. Barrels per day. In March, it launched a large deposit Novoportovskoye “Gazprom Neft”, continued production growth at “Bashneft”, in the second quarter should start Filanovskii LUKOIL field. How will the decision on freezing or reduction of production of Russian oil companies, comment early as real steps to this is not done. »

Nordea Bank analyst Dmitry Savchenko

“Hints to reduce oil market is not heard. These verbal interventions are unlikely to be the basis for long-term strengthening of oil prices. We expect the year-end price of $ 40 a barrel, but this is due to the reduction of investment in the oil sector. Last year, their volume decreased by 15%, in doing so, we expect to reduce by 20%. Prospects for the Russian currency remains vague. ”

The chief economist for Russia and CIS Bank of America Merrill Lynch Vladimir Osakovsky

«The impact on the ruble will depend on how you respond to this statement the price of oil. The first reaction was negative, which is surprising. The cost of a barrel fell by 3-4%. Apparently punters application for freezing production is not particularly trust. Nevertheless, oil prices should recover, rebalancing should occur in the oil market. Our official forecast – the average annual oil will cost $ 46 per barrel. The dollar thus will cost an average of 65 rubles. It can be assumed that the current oil price is close to the minimum value, respectively, and the value of the ruble, too. »

Head of the Eurasian Development Bank economist Yaroslav Lissovolik

« Can to say that the fact of reaching an agreement for the positive development of the ruble. It opens up prospects for oil prices stabilize. Therefore, in the long run it will positively affect the value of the Russian currency. In the next few months, we can see the strengthening of the ruble. I would expect the rate to 70 rubles. for a dollar or even lower ».

senior analyst on oil and gas sector,” Aton “Alexander Kornilov

« Official agreement only between the three members of OPEC, and that others think about the production of frozen, you can only guess. The final formulation of the position of the Ministry of Energy said: “We are ready to freeze the production, if that decision to join the other manufacturers.” But historically rare agreement within OPEC was observed, so realize if this arrangement, the big question: for example, now has a certain level of quotas [mining] OPEC, but no one takes. How the country will follow that everything is frozen and no one further not producing, it is not clear. In addition, there is Iran, which is going to increase production significantly in the coming year. It is only on the current production level of freezing, but not cut, that is, the excess of which is now on the market – 1.5 million barrels per day, will be

Russian oil companies have fixed a limit on the level of production. of January, and in January, Russia has shown new record and maintain production at this level will be easy. It is logical that at current oil prices, production levels in Russia will not grow much, but will remain at the level of last year’s peak, or even slightly lower. Therefore, for the Russian segment of the oil ministers’ meeting today means little. ”


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